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Why Canada’s NAFTA Negotiations Are Not Working Part III – Is Canada the Third Wheel in NAFTA?

I am hopeful that this will be my last post on why Canada’s NAFTA negotiations are not working as I would very much like to see our great country move beyond North American trade discussions.  Recently, Raymond Bachand, Quebec’s NAFTA negotiator, spoke to CBC about NAFTA negotiations and said he was not worried that the United States and Mexico are engaging in bilateral talks without Canada.  In his opinion, the United States and Mexico are discussing automobiles and one or two issues which are of interest only to the United States and Mexico.  With respect to automobiles, Mr. Bachand feels that Canada should not be worried because Canada’s position is the same as the United States and the United States would negotiate much harder against Mexico than Canada.  Furthermore, Mr. Bachand stated that once the automobile issues are sorted out, the talks would once again become trilateral and the remaining major issues would be sorted out.

I want to believe Mr. Bachand, but with all due respect, it is difficult to believe him when President Trump is expressly stating that the United States is not currently negotiating with Canada and that Canada has to wait.  Furthermore, while the United States and Mexico are discussing automobiles, the United States is threatening Canada with an auto tariff!  So, in a supposed trilateral agreement involving automobiles, Canada is not at the table and is also threatened with an auto tariff if Canada doesn’t come to an agreement NAFTA.  How did negotiations go so wrong?

Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, is on record stating that he is “hopeful that in the next several days we’ll have a breakthrough” and that there “are still some difficult issues to work through, as there always are at the end.”  In other words, Robert Lighthizer feels that negotiations are almost at an end.  Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo is also of the same mind and feels that a deal may be reached at the end of this month.  In conclusion, both the United States and Mexican representatives feel like they are close to a NAFTA deal and a Canadian representative feels like discussions will be approaching the endgame after the United States and Mexico complete their talks without Canada.  It makes sense that Canada has no idea what is going on as it is not at the negotiating table.  To rub some extra salt into the NAFTA wound, Lighthizer said “I hope once we get [a deal] with Mexico then Canada will come along. I feel reasonably good about that.”

It now appears that in trade matters, Canada is the third wheel.  Lighthizer’s comments clearly indicate that Canada’s interests will not be heard initially and that the United States hopes that Canada will simply accept most of the provisions discussed.  I do not read all the news so I do not know if Mexico is objecting to this arrangement.  Certainly, this is a marked change from the initial positioning where it was Canada and Mexico together negotiating with the United States.  It now appears to be the United States and Mexico negotiating with Canada.  Shocking.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are Contenders this 2018/2019 Season and Beyond

For the past two years, it was apparent that the Toronto Maple Leafs were following the broad outlines of the template laid out by the 2016 Stanley Cup winning Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Penguins boasted two star centres and a star winger on three different lines with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel.  They had good goaltending with Mark-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray, and they had a serviceable defence.

The 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs have two centres in Nazem Kadri and Austin Matthews and budding star wingers in Mitch Marner and William Nylander.  They have good goaltenders in Frederik Anderson and Curtis McElhinney, and they have a serviceable defence.  We are omitting players such as Tyler Bozak and James Van Riemsdyk as they will be playing on other teams next year, but even if we include them, it is clear that the Leafs’ collective performance level is lower on a relative basis than the 2016 Stanley Cup winners.  This is why it was completely understandable when the Leafs did not win the Stanley Cup last year.

With the signing of John Tavares, the Toronto Maple Leafs projected performance level looks to be similar to the 2016 Pittsburgh Penguins.  This is huge and means that the Leafs become contenders this 2018/2019 season.  John Tavares is a bona fide star and while not on the same level as Sidney Crosby, Tavares is in that elite No. 1 centre category.  Evgeni Malkin is also in that category and the Leafs now have TWO centres in Matthews and Kadri to match up to Malkin.  Instead of one star winger in Phil Kessel, the Leafs have TWO budding star wingers in Mitch Marner and William Nylander.  They will continue to have good goaltending in Frederik Anderson and McElhinney, and they will continue to have a serviceable defence.  While the Leafs’ projected performance level for the 2018/2019 season may not be as high as the 2016 Pittsburgh Penguins, the Leafs are getting close.

The reality is that right now, Austin Matthews is not as good as John Tavares or Nazem Kadri, but he has the potential to surpass both of them.  Mitch Marner and William Nylander may not be quite as good as Phil Kessel in the offensive end at this moment, but may already be better in the neutral zone and defensive end of the rink.  Imagine how good Matthews, Marner, and Nylander will become in a year or two when they have even more development time and seasoning under Mike Babcock.  It is not inconceivable to project Matthews as an elite centre and Marner and Nylander as elite wingers.  Under this scenario, the math will tilt heavily in the Leafs favour.  The Leafs will have three elite centres in Tavares, Matthews, and Kadri vs Pittsburgh’s two in Crosby and Malkin.  The Leafs will have two elite wingers in Marner and Nylander vs Pittsburgh’s one in Phil Kessel.  In addition, Anderson will still be in his prime as a goalie and the defence will continue to develop.

The Leafs have set the table for long runs in the playoffs as perennial contenders for the Stanley Cup.  Don’t sleep on the Leafs for the next three seasons.  They have built a structurally sound foundation for years to come.